The Australian dollar’s climb over the past month has defied forecasts, taking it to the top of the leaderboard as rising commodity prices, falling volatility and a central bank on the sidelines drive demand.
Only one of more than 50 forecasters are predicting the Aussie will strengthen in the second quarter after it climbed against all major peers since early February to reach a seven-month high on Friday. The currency retreated Monday after China’s expanded deficit target disappointed some in the market expecting a more aggressive stimulus signal from Australia’s largest trading partner, National Australia Bank Ltd. said. Traders will watch for comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Philip Lowe Tuesday for signs the currency’s strength is beginning to trouble policy makers.
The Aussie was at 74.09 cents as of 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo, down 0.4 percent from Friday, when it touched 74.43, the most since July. It has gained 4.8 percent in the past month. The currency will weaken to 69 cents by June 30, according to the median of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
RBA board member John Edwards last month told the Wall Street Journal that the Aussie was too strong and he would be more comfortable with a level around 65 cents. He added that he wasn’t confident a drop to that level would occur, according to the report.